My original post (had to branch off from the original thread):

Matthew Doucette:

I think it would be cool if the "most popular" list was actually a "best conversion" list (conversion from trials to full game purchases).  But the XNA team can do the math on this and see what that list would actually be.  A best converting list are all games that gamers are most apt to purchase after playing the trial, which is an optimization of their time.  I wish so badly I could see the XBLCG data, to calculate what this list would look like.

And responses:

Running Pixel:

I like this idea... a sort of rating taken from the real data. Great! (I said the same in another post..)

Deej:

In all these discussions, this is by far the best I've read. It would be easier to implement (I guess) because it requires no UI, and could probably be made serverside without any NXE updates.

100 internets to that man!

Thank you both!  We need a list better than the top 10 (should be called "best selling") and new arrivals, for newcomers to XBLCG to improve our first impression.  Until we have a "top rated" list, perhaps this is the best idea.  And however the "most popular" list is calculated, it should be named accordingly.  If it's based on sales, then "best sellers", for example.  (Can we have a look at the popularity algorithm?)

Matthew Doucette:

(Can we have a look at the popularity algorithm?

It's been said a few times by members on the XNA team that it's a secret recipe passed from mouth-of-microsoft-employee to ear-of-microsoft-employee, and subject to be changed-by-microsoft-employee, and is also only-to-be-seen-by-microsoft-employees. Do you see a pattern there?
Also, and I've said this in another thread, dashboard translation in other languages are not always a direct translation of "Most Popular". In french, for example is "Most Downloaded". That might give a hint...

Matthew Doucette:

If it's based on sales, then "best sellers", for example.

That term (and the algorithm) depends on the Xbox team, not the XNA team. And it's being used all over the NXE, not just for community games, so I assume it is a standard term. I imagine it's a great deal of hassle and tedious inter-department paperwork to even suggest changing that.

Catalin Zima:

Matthew Doucette:

(Can we have a look at the popularity algorithm?

Also, and I've said this in another thread, dashboard translation in other languages are not always a direct translation of "Most Popular". In french, for example is "Most Downloaded". That might give a hint...

Do you know how much better "Most Downloaded" would be as a title, if that's what it actually was?  Rhetorical question! :)

I don't think I would want it to be an unweighted "best converting" list.  There are a lot of factors that can impact conversion rate besides the quality of the game--for instance, maybe your box art is bad/bland, so only those very interested in your type of game would try it in the first place.

What I'm getting at is that exposure suggests quality (and interest by the broader XBLCG) just like conversion rates do.  I wouldn't be opposed to making conversion rate a big factor in determining Popularity--heck, for all we know, it might already be!  But it shouldn't be the sole factor.

This is a great idea, but I'm pretty biased because my game has a 20% conversion factor :P

Like people have already said, I think it should play a decent part but it shouldn't be the only factor. Price for example will see a lot of people move away from the 800 point games so the conversion factor would be lower, but that doesn't mean they aren't excellent games.

Catalin Zima:

It's been said a few times by members on the XNA team that it's a secret recipe passed from mouth-of-microsoft-employee to ear-of-microsoft-employee, and subject to be changed-by-microsoft-employee, and is also only-to-be-seen-by-microsoft-employees. Do you see a pattern there?
Also, and I've said this in another thread, dashboard translation in other languages are not always a direct translation of "Most Popular". In french, for example is "Most Downloaded". That might give a hint...

It's interesting, if you go onto xbox.com and look at the popularity of Full games compared to Trials for all games on Xbox LIVE my game is actually more like 6th most popular rather than #2, as the Community Games popularity states. So I reckon the conversion rate plays a much bigger factor than we think, as the big thing my game has going for it is the conversion factor.

Yeah, price is also going to have a big impact on conversion rate, don't know why I didn't think about that.  An 800-point game might have only one-fourth the conversion rate of a 200-point game, but who's to say it's not one of the most ambitious and well-produced titles on XBLCG?  I know if I were making a big, well-produced ten-hour game, that's probably where I would price it.

Anchorcast:

What I'm getting at is that exposure suggests quality (and interest by the broader XBLCG) just like conversion rates do.  I wouldn't be opposed to making conversion rate a big factor in determining Popularity--heck, for all we know, it might already be!  But it shouldn't be the sole factor.

Exposure does suggest quality, good point.

Maybe this "best conversion" list could be a "XBLCG's best kept secrets" list, as these games will be great games without exposure.  Why?  Exposure lowers conversion rates, as it raises awareness of games to people not looking for them and not always interested in them, so the ones with most exposure would not be on this list.  But great games, which are converting great, will be on the list.  It would kick ass.  I'd have to see the actual data to back up what I wrote in this paragraph.  But I bet the best converting games are ones without marketing (EDIT!!), and the ones with the most marketing are not the best converting games.

There's another reason against using conversion rate as the sole determinant--it's too static.  Most games' conversion rates don't fluctuate much, and they especially don't show a game's rise and fall of popularity over time.  Microsoft wants to give everybody a chance--each good game its day (or week, or month) in the spotlight.  A list of the games with the best conversion rates would change very little over time.

Anchorcast:

Yeah, price is also going to have a big impact on conversion rate, don't know why I didn't think about that.  An 800-point game might have only one-fourth the conversion rate of a 200-point game, but who's to say it's not one of the most ambitious and well-produced titles on XBLCG?  I know if I were making a big, well-produced ten-hour game, that's probably where I would price it.

This is a valid point that I brought up in another thread.  We pushed 1000$ our first week out but didnt even make the top ten sales lists because we sold less units but probably made more money.

My game is a family, 4 player oriented game. That is NOT the typical xbox market. I have a wii but I hate it. I was tired of all the family games going to the wii and decided to write one for the xbox. Well, the problem with using conversion rates is just my example. I have excellent conversion (I think its around 15-20%) but not many downloads. The number of users enjoying Solar on the xbox compared to my cheesy little family game is MUCH more and rightly so. Solar should be higher than my game on 'most popular' or whatever the verbage is. Mine shouldn't be near Solar when it comes to popularity, even though we may have similar conversion numbers, because most xbox users are fat, old, male, nerds with no life. That may be who I am, but that's not my market.

Your all fat nerds.

So 6 months after release my game sales 1 copy on a 100% conversion rate...should it be at the top of the popularity list ( which updates itself daily )?

After looking at my sales and comparing to others who have posted theirs, 800 point games don't have a chance at competing popularity wise unless total revenue is taken into consideration.  As of now I can tell the popularity algorithm does not take price point into consideration at all.

Edit:  I think this idea is not a good one.  Conversion rate is highly influenced by a lot of factors and is not the best indicator of the most popular games.

This idea looks good on the face of things.
But the only system that will really work is user rated games.
Are MS even considering this? I doubt it.
Bringing back recommended games would help.

GloryHornetEmmo:

This idea looks good on the face of things.
But the only system that will really work is user rated games.
Are MS even considering this? I doubt it.
Bringing back recommended games would help.

I'm pretty sure they've said they're looking into user ratings.  We can all wait with bated breath, in the meantime.