I still haven't quite narrowed it down but this seems to be the error.
Building target "_CopyOutOfDateNestedContentItemsToOutputDirectory" partially, because some output files are out of date with respect to their input files.
Somehow removing the project and readding it fixed the problem. I readded it as an existing link but I'm not sure how much that helped or even if it helped at all.
In any case, problem solved!